ETH down 60% from peak, posing buy opportunity vs value trap dilemma

With ETH down 60% from its October high, the current price level could be either a buying opportunity or a structural value trap, according to an analysis by on-chain firm 10X Research. The firm noted that it has maintained a bearish stance on ETH since last October, continuously pointing to structural flaws. 10X Research argued that even when ETH was trading at $3,800, it was not an attractive asset to hold, and the DeFi growth narrative was based on excessive expectations. The analysis added that the rally in the middle of last year was primarily driven by inflows related to Bitmine, and this price momentum vanished once the inflows stopped as the mNAV, or market price to net asset value, premium shrank to 1x. The gap between price and intrinsic value was bound to close, and with the Bitmine effect gone, ETH's price has returned to a level more in line with its fundamentals, the firm said. However, 10X Research explained that with the price now down approximately 60% from its October high and trading below its undervalued range, its previous bearish outlook requires re-evaluation. The current level could represent a rare buying opportunity for long-term investors, but it also risks being a value trap that reflects a weakening of ETH's structural competitiveness.