Singapore proposes additional rules to safeguard retail crypto investors

Australian venture capitalist and founder of MHC Digital Group, Mark Carnegie, is optimistic about bitcoin's potential for a bullish trend, while believing that Asia will be the real force driving the market beyond the exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval hype in the United States.Photo by Hans Eiskonen on Unsplash$50,000 bitcoin retestIn a recent interview with CNBC, Carnegie expressed his belief that bitcoin is "clearly primed for a bit of a run and a retest to $50,000." The bitcoin unit price stood at around $43,600 at the time of the interview. At the time of writing, it’s weighing in at $46,773. While there’s likely to be considerable resistance in the leading cryptocurrency getting past the psychologically important $50,000 level, the digital asset is certainly heading in the direction that Carnegie had predicted. Looking ahead, Carnegie shared his short-to-medium-term outlook, stating:"So my feeling is short term, long, medium term, which is, you know, 30 to 90 days, probably a retrace." This suggests that Carnegie anticipates a positive trajectory for bitcoin in the coming months, likely as an initial response to a spot bitcoin ETF approval in the U.S. Last week a report from Singapore-based digital asset financial services firm Matrixport speculated that spot bitcoin ETF applications would be rejected as they have been over the past few years. Market risk factorsHowever, he also voiced concerns about the current state of the U.S. equity markets and potential recession indicators. Reflecting on the recent miss on payrolls, Carnegie commented:"I feel like that miss on payrolls last week makes me feel like there's a big flip. And everyone's going to start panicking about a recession." Despite the uncertainty in traditional markets, Carnegie remains optimistic about bitcoin's performance. When asked about the specific impact on cryptocurrencies, he admitted, "How's that going to affect crypto? I don't really know." In a blog post published last Friday, Arthur Hayes, the CIO of Hong Kong-based family office Maelstrom, similarly points to market turbulence in the short to medium term while remaining bullish on bitcoin over the longer term. An Asia-powered bull runCarnegie highlighted the influence of spot bitcoin ETFs and suggested inflows, noting that there are more net flows from Asia than the U.S. He stated:“You could easily see $50 - $100 billion in net new flow out of Asia this year, and if that happens..!” He mentioned the anticipation of approximately $5 billion waiting to come into the U.S., characterizing it as substantial but perhaps not as impactful as expected in the short term. "It's an Asian story this time round,” Carnegie claimed. Carnegie also expressed a preference for bitcoin over Ethereum in the current financial landscape. He stated:"Bitcoin feels more solid to me at the moment. So on a relative basis, I can talk like I can talk to you. I feel like for the next little while, Bitcoin feels better to me than Ethereum." Mark Carnegie's positive outlook on bitcoin's potential rally to $50,000 aligns with his preference for bitcoin over Ethereum in the current market conditions, despite concerns about the broader economic landscape.  

An industry advocacy body for crypto and Web3 in India had urged the Indian government to take action against nine offshore exchanges, prompting the government to issue show cause notices and block URLs recently. Native industry pushbackAccording to CoinDesk, the publication has seen a copy of a letter that was sent in mid-December by the Bharat Web3 Association (BWA), addressed to the Indian Finance Ministry’s Department of Revenue Secretary, Sanjay Malhotra. The letter was penned by BWA Chairman Dilip Chenoy. Chenoy has been in the role since March of last year having a number of years of leadership experience within Indian industry bodies under his belt, with time spent previously as Secretary General of the Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry and as Chairman of the board of Sant Longowal Institute of Engineering and Technology. According to its LinkedIn profile, the BWA seeks to “advocate for the collaboration between the regulatory bodies and the Industry for creating awareness about the new age technology and the emerging [Web3/crypto] asset class.” ‘Show cause’ noticesIt emerged last week that India’s Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) had issued “compliance show-cause” notices to a number of overseas crypto platforms who have otherwise been active within the Indian market. The FIU is a national body tasked with liaising with and providing information to enforcement agencies where suspected illicit transactions are concerned. The offshore exchanges, including Binance, KuCoin, Huobi, Kraken, Gate.io, Bittrex, Bitstamp, MEXC Global and Bitfinex, have been given a two-week deadline to respond to the show cause notice. This notice questions why regulatory actions should not be taken against them, aiming to ensure compliance with the country's financial regulations. It’s understood that the BWA's letter requested a one-month grace period for offshore exchanges to register with the FIU. It remains unclear whether the government's actions were solely prompted by the BWA's letter or if it would have taken place independently. Notably, the BWA's letter aligns with the government's earlier mandate in March, requiring crypto businesses to register with the FIU and adhere to anti-money laundering processes under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA). Since then, 31 domestic entities have registered with the FIU. Photo by Peter Glaser on UnsplashEnsuring a fair gameThe BWA's letter also proposes that offshore exchanges establish an Indian subsidiary, deposit the applicable tax deducted at source (TDS) from July 1, 2022 and face restrictions, including potential access blocks on mobile app stores and IP addresses, for non-compliance. While it's unclear if all these requests feature in the show cause notices, the BWA emphasizes the need for fair competition. Rajagopal Menon, Vice President of leading Indian crypto exchange WazirX, stressed that “all we are asking for is a level playing field." The BWA's letter also urges the government to grant Indian retailers a 30-day window to withdraw assets before implementing any restrictions. The fledgling BWA industry body recently celebrated its first anniversary with its founding member, CoinSwitch founder Ashish Singhal, stating that he got involved with the BWA “to help build an effective regulatory framework for Web3 and digital assets in India.” Singhal added that the BWA’s mission is “to help India realize its vision to be the leading digital economy.” 

Crypto Exchange Loss Deters Temasek from Investing in Crypto FirmsSingapore’s state-owned investor Temasek has ruled out investing in crypto companies for now, following a $275 million loss in the bankrupt US crypto exchange FTX.Photo by Plato Terentev on PexelsRegulatory uncertainty concernsTemasek’s Chief Investment Officer Rohit Sipahimalani said in a CNBC interview on Tuesday that the regulatory uncertainty in the crypto sector made it very difficult for the fund to make another investment in an exchange.“There’s a lot of regulatory uncertainty in this environment. And I do think that it will be very difficult for us to make another investment and exchange in the middle of all this regulatory uncertainty,” Sipahimalani said.He added that Temasek was not interested in investing in cryptocurrencies, but rather in exchanges that could generate fee-based revenue without taking balance sheet or trading risks. In May, it was reported that Temasek had invested in algorithmic currency system, Array. However, the global investment company was quick to deny those reports.“We’ve never been looking to invest in cryptocurrencies. Even the investment in FTX, we’ll be talking about investing in an exchange, which allowed us to get fee-based revenue without thinking [of] balance sheet risk or any trading risks,” he said. However, he said that Temasek would not be comfortable investing in exchanges given the way things are right now, and that it would depend on the right regulatory framework and investment opportunity.“If you have the right regulatory framework, and we are comfortable with it, and you have the right investment opportunity, there’s no reason for us to not to look at it,” he said. Temasek’s FTX investment was part of its early-stage investment strategy, where it invests in new disruptive technologies and tries to find the next winners, Sipahimalani said.But the strategy backfired when FTX filed for bankruptcy in November, with more than 1.4 million creditors and billions of dollars in liabilities, according to bankruptcy filings.Reputational damageTemasek wrote down its $275 million investment in FTX to zero soon after the collapse of the exchange. However, the bigger concern for the company is the posting of its worst returns since 2016 amid macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges. In the financial year ending in March 2023, the investing behemoth posted a $7.3 billion loss.The FTX loss sparked criticism from Singapore’s Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Lawrence Wong, who called it “disappointing” and damaging for Singapore’s reputation. And that is the greater issue for Temasek relative to FTX.The amount of that particular loss is not that significant, given the size of the company and the scale of losses incurred elsewhere. The issue has been the reputational damage that the company has experienced as a direct consequence. Temasek maintains that it carried out competent due diligence, as have all of the venture capital investors who have all had their FTX investments wiped out.Further details on that due diligence are likely to emerge as Temasek, alongside many other leading investors in FTX, is being sued by creditors on the basis that they gave credence to what transpired to be a fraud. Temasek announced in May that it would cut the salaries of the staff responsible for the FTX investment, after conducting an internal review of the deal.