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The South Korean financial authority will establish new policies and guidelines for token listing and provide admirable examples from past listing events for local exchanges to follow, according to local media outlet News1.  So far, fiat-to-crypto exchanges in Korea have been listing tokens on their platforms under a guideline issued by Digital Asset eXchange Alliance (DAXA) – a self-regulatory consultation group comprised of five major Korean crypto exchanges. The existing DAXA guideline outlines basic yet vague instructions, which have allowed exchanges to list tokens largely at their discretion.  However, the new guideline from the financial authority, expected to be released by this June, will mark the government’s first official manual on token listing. This is in line with the upcoming Virtual Asset User Protection Act, which will be effective in July. Photo by Hitesh Choudhary on UnsplashSetting clear guidelines for token listingsThe new guidelines are expected to include examples of past fraud detection and real-time monitoring cases which are deemed to have set precedents for the industry players. Moreover, the financial authority plans to distribute past exemplary cases of token listing as early as April, which is anticipated to set a model listing process and help local crypto exchanges adhere to the law and requirements.  This announcement comes after the local game company Wemade relisted its native token WEMIX on Korbit, one of DAXA's member exchanges, just a year after it was delisted on major exchanges due to its deviant practices in token issuance. The relisting of WEMIX has since raised concerns among crypto insiders about the lack of criteria regarding token listings. More refined token listing process As the crypto market's bullish trend continues, Bithumb and Coinone – the second and third-largest exchanges in Korea – are stepping up their efforts to speed up the listing of new coins. Industry experts expect these exchanges will double down on their efforts in screening and reviewing processes for tokens to align with the new guidelines in the future.  An official from the Korean Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) said that while the anticipated listing process is not legally binding, it will definitely have a more profound impact on local crypto exchanges compared to the self-regulated DAXA guidelines.  

Bithumb Introduces Crypto Data Service Amid Fight for ProfitabilityBithumb, one of the major cryptocurrency exchanges in South Korea, has announced the launch of a new service called Insight, aimed at providing real-time data and analytics about crypto trading. This strategic step is seen as part of Bithumb’s response to address its recent profitability challenges.Market patterns and trendsThe service, as reported by local news agency Yonhap News, leverages customers’ data to deliver market patterns in real time. By utilizing Insight, users can gain access to information such as the top three most-searched cryptos, rankings of price growth over specific periods, and price trends of major cryptos.In addition to these features, Bithumb offers insights into the trading behavior of the largest investors on the platform by showcasing the types and proportions of cryptocurrencies they purchased on the previous day. This functionality enables ordinary investors to gain a glimpse into the strategies employed by these influential players.Bithumb provides indicators that identify cryptos experiencing upward momentum or reaching their lowest points. Users can also access other data, including Bitcoin dominance, which indicates Bitcoin’s market capitalization relative to the overall crypto market cap. Additionally, the service presents information regarding the volatility of recently listed cryptos and those that have been flagged by the exchange as potentially concerning.Photo by Алекс Арцибашев on UnsplashDesktop and Android firstThe service is accessible today starting from 11:00 AM (Korea Standard Time) on desktop and Android. The iOS version is set to be released at a later time.Recent strugglesThe Korean crypto exchange’s move comes after Bithumb Korea, the exchange’s operator, has embarked on streamlining its businesses. Due to difficulties in generating profits, Bithumb Korea shut down its tech solution subsidiary Bithumb Systems, which was responsible for developing blockchain and exchange technology.Prior to that, the Bithumb exchange had closed its research center due to a decline in trading volume, even though the facility had significant value in aiding investors to make more knowledgeable choices.

Korean Crypto Exchange Presents Bitcoin Forecasts for Three ScenariosRecently, concerns over a potential US default have heightened due to the ongoing disagreement between Republicans and Democrats in the US Congress regarding the necessity of increasing the debt ceiling. Democrats, along with the Biden administration, advocate for authorizing additional debt, while Republicans propose spending cuts.Considering the historical patterns observed in the US and the inherently political nature of this matter, it is improbable that the uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling raise will endure for an extended period. In the past, when faced with a similar situation in 2011, the debt ceiling was ultimately approved despite significant political divisions. Particularly with upcoming elections next year and escalating concerns of an economic downturn, it is likely that a resolution to the debt ceiling issue will be reached soon.In light of these circumstances, the economic research institute at one of South Korea’s major crypto exchanges Bithumb released a report that outlines three distinct scenarios depicting the potential unfolding of the debt ceiling issue in the US. Additionally, it has offered insights into the potential implications for Bitcoin under each scenario.Photo by Shubham’s Web3 on UnsplashBipartisan agreement to increase the debt ceilingIn the scenario where the debt ceiling is promptly raised as a result of a significant bipartisan agreement, the US is anticipated to adopt an expansionary fiscal policy by issuing government bonds to prevent a default. If a debt ceiling deal is reached, it is projected that short-term bond issuance will reach a net amount of $1.4 trillion by the end of the year. There is also a growing consensus that medium- and long-term bond issuance may commence in the third quarter. Additionally, the possibility of interest rate cuts as early as the second half of this year entered the equation. In the long term, this could potentially lead to a depreciation of the dollar as market liquidity increases, thereby weakening the currency. It is worth noting that historically, the value of Bitcoin tended to go up when market liquidity rises.Debt ceiling disagreement and delayed negotiationsAnother scenario entails the failure of the two parties to reach an agreement and a subsequent delay in approving a raise to the debt ceiling. Should the debt ceiling not be raised in a timely manner, the US would potentially encounter an unparalleled default on its debt obligations. This default could trigger a severe credit crunch, resulting from international credit downgrades and a weakened global standing for the US. Such circumstances would further escalate the risk of an economic crisis.As the negotiations on the debt limit continue to be delayed, there will be a prolonged period of uncertainty in both Treasury issuance and secondary markets. This uncertainty poses risks to money market funds (MMFs) that hold a significant portion of short-term Treasuries, potentially resulting in losses. Consequently, there could be a shift towards reverse repo (RRP) transactions as investors seek alternative avenues. In fact, Treasury liquidity has recently exhibited signs of deterioration, with MMFs and RRPs garnering considerable attention in the market.Heightened concerns regarding short-term Treasuries could lead to a higher volume of reverse repo trades compared to repo trades. Repo transactions use Treasuries as collateral, whereas reverse repo transactions involve depositing funds with the Fed or lending money to the Fed in exchange for collateral, which often includes Treasuries, thereby earning interest. In such a scenario, market liquidity could become trapped in the Fed, potentially rekindling risks within the banking system.Given their sensitivity to liquidity conditions, crypto markets are anticipated to experience a temporary decline. However, Bitcoin has exhibited a historical pattern of appreciating in value as an alternative to the US banking system, especially during instances of small and medium-sized bank failures. In the event of prolonged negotiations and an escalating risk of a US default, the demand for safe-haven assets like Bitcoin might surge. As a result, Bitcoin could gain favorability as investors seek refuge in alternative assets amidst uncertain market conditions.Linking debt ceiling increase to spending reductionThe last scenario involves a conditional agreement accompanied by measures aimed at reducing the deficit, as proposed by Republicans. Given the longstanding concerns surrounding excessive US deficits, any agreement to raise the debt ceiling would likely be contingent upon fiscal consolidation and spending cuts. Notably, as of March 31, 2023, the US federal deficit is approximately 8% of GDP, a figure comparable to the 8.3% average observed in 2011 when the possibility of a US default reached its peak.While fiscal consolidation is necessary to ensure fiscal sustainability, unless the US significantly increases tax revenues, an increase in the debt ceiling may be negotiated at the expense of significant cuts to the national budget. In such a case, the US economy would inevitably experience the adverse effects of reduced government spending.The Republican party has put forth a demand of $4.8 trillion in deficit reduction over the next ten years as a condition for raising the debt ceiling. This figure translates to an average of $480 billion per year or approximately 1.8% of the current year’s GDP (as of May). However, it is important to note that in the medium to long term, reductions in government spending without complementary expansionary monetary policies have the potential to accelerate GDP decline. If Congress agrees to cuts in government spending, it could increase the probability of the Fed swiftly reversing its tightening policy. Unless the Fed halts its tightening measures, the likelihood of a US recession may become more pronounced.If the Fed decides to cut interest rates earlier than anticipated in response to the Treasury’s fiscal consolidation efforts, Bitcoin, which is known to be more responsive to long-term monetary policy, might be able to overcome the short-term downturn and experience an upward trend.The authors contend that at present, market attention is primarily directed towards the matter of raising the debt ceiling, taking into account the potential risks of a US default and the possibility of a bond rating downgrade. However, they believe it is unlikely that US politicians will make radical decisions in the run-up to next year’s presidential election.While the issue of raising the debt ceiling will have a short-term impact, the report argues that the main drivers of Bitcoin’s price in the medium to long term will be the Fed’s monetary policy and the occurrence of Bitcoin’s halving event.It is important to note that there is a time lag between the end of the Fed’s tightening measures and the halving of Bitcoin. In the short term, the price trajectory of Bitcoin will likely be influenced by factors such as the potential failure of additional small and medium-sized US banks (which is concerning given recent outflows of US bank deposits) and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to the delay in raising the debt ceiling. These factors will play a greater role in shaping Bitcoin’s short-term performance.