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BitMEX Co-Founder Forecasts $750K to $1 Million Bitcoin Price by 2026

Markets·October 07, 2023, 12:39 AM

In a recent interview with YouTuber Tom Bilyeu, Arthur Hayes, Co-Founder of the Seychelles-registered cryptocurrency exchange and derivative trading platform BitMEX, has expressed his bullish outlook on Bitcoin’s future price, projecting a valuation of $750,000 to $1 million for the leading cryptocurrency by the year 2026.

Photo by Kanchanara on Unsplash

 

Finite supply to drive price dynamic

Hayes’ optimism is rooted in several factors that he believes will shape the next Bitcoin cycle. One of the key factors driving Hayes’ projection is Bitcoin’s limited supply. With a maximum cap of 21 million coins, Bitcoin’s scarcity is expected to propel the unit price of the asset in tandem with growing demand as more investors seek to secure a piece of this finite resource.

The idea that Bitcoin’s scarcity will drive its value higher has been a fundamental tenet of the cryptocurrency since its inception. In 2010 the leading cryptocurrency’s pseudonymous Founder stated: “When someone tries to buy all the world’s supply of a scarce asset, the more they buy the higher the price goes.”

 

ETF potential

Hayes also highlighted the potential for Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to become available in major regulated markets. The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs could attract institutional investors and provide a more accessible way for the broader public to invest in Bitcoin, further boosting its demand.

However, Hayes also speculates about the risks associated with a Bitcoin ETF. He stated: “Are we inviting in something that’s going to fundamentally change what Bitcoin is?”

 

Geopolitical factors

Geopolitical uncertainty plays a significant role in Hayes’ forecast also. As global economic and political instability persists, investors may turn to Bitcoin and other alternative assets as hedges against traditional financial instruments.

However, it’s important to note that Hayes contextualized his Bitcoin price prediction within a larger bullish macroeconomic environment. From his perspective the surge in asset prices will not be limited to cryptocurrencies alone. He anticipates a substantial boom in financial markets, with not only Bitcoin but also traditional assets like stocks experiencing substantial price growth.

Hayes stated: “I think it will be the biggest boom in financial markets we have ever seen in human history. Bitcoin will have a ridiculous price, Nasdaq will have a ridiculous price, S&P will have a ridiculous price.”

Known for his thoughtful and insightful writings on the subject area, Hayes wrote in July that he believes that Bitcoin will be the currency of choice when it comes to the growing need for artificial intelligence (AI) to work directly with a means of payment.

 

$1 million BTC by 2026

While Hayes’ projection of a $1 million Bitcoin price by 2026 may seem ambitious, his short-term predictions are more moderate. He foresees Bitcoin trading in the $30,000 range for the current year. Building upon that thesis, he maintains that the possibility exists of it reaching $70,000 by 2024.

This aligns with the views of other industry analysts who anticipate challenges and headwinds in the near term. There’s little doubt that recent platform failures and speculation with regard to the health of other leading crypto platforms have been retarding market performance more recently.

While the road ahead may hold fluctuations and challenges, many experts believe that Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory remains promising, driven by its unique attributes and the changing dynamics of global finance.

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Policy & Regulation·

Oct 23, 2023

Bithumb Live Files for Bankruptcy

Bithumb Live Files for BankruptcySouth Korean cryptocurrency exchange Bithumb’s live commerce platform Bithumb Live — an attempt at business diversification — has filed for bankruptcy. The platform entered bankruptcy proceedings last year, brought on by business difficulties and various suspicions of embezzlement involving its CEO.Photo by Melinda Gimpel on UnsplashAccording to legal sources on Monday, the Seoul Bankruptcy Court declared Bithumb Live’s bankruptcy last Monday. The court plans to hold creditor meetings and inspections on November 28 to incorporate creditors’ opinions into the bankruptcy proceedings and assess the status of the company. Major companies like LG Uplus, SK Telecom, SK Magic, and Lotte Card are among the platform’s creditors.Bithumb Live’s backgroundBithumb Live was founded in September 2021 by Bithumb and Bucket Studio, who each invested KRW 6 billion (approximately $4.4 million). Bucket Studio is a content distribution company that gained considerable attention with the global success of the Netflix original series “Squid Game” last year because it holds a 15% stake in Artist Company, an entertainment planning agency co-founded by “Squid Game” lead actor Lee Jung-jae and actor Jung Woo-sung. In particular, Bucket Studio’s CEO Kang Ji-yeon is the sister of Kang Jong-hyun, who is embroiled in allegations related to the ownership of Bithumb.Bithumb and Bucket Studio each hold a 37.5% share of Bithumb Live, making a combined ownership of over 75%. Bithumb Live, led by Kang Ji-yeon, had been established with the intent to create a commerce platform with various features like a metaverse, non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and cryptocurrency payments. After its establishment, it announced that it would challenge its key competitor Naver’s prominent live shopping platform by preparing to sign deals with 15 different companies.Financial hardshipsHowever, the platform hit a roadblock just one year after its establishment and found itself unable to escape financial difficulties. According to last year’s business report, Bithumb Live’s liabilities exceeded its assets by approximately KRW 248 million and the platform recorded a net loss of KRW 10.2 billion. Unable to withstand such losses, it announced an indefinite temporary closure via its internal messenger to employees in October of last year. The employees ended up working only four hours a day, resulting in a more than 50% reduction in working hours. Subsequently, the number of employees, which was 73 in September, plummeted to just four in January of this year, essentially signaling a total stop to business operations. In the first half of this year, Bithumb Live’s net loss amounted to almost KRW 1.1 billion.Management entanglementsOn top of these financial strains, the company was also plagued by Kang Ji-yeon and her brother Kang Jong-hyun’s owner’s risk, which encompassed allegations of embezzlement and misappropriation. In July of this year, Kang Ji-yeon was sent to trial on charges of embezzlement and misappropriation at Bucket Studio. Along with her brother and former Chorokbaem (CRB) Group Chairman Won Young-sik, she was accused of granting call options on convertible bonds held by Bithumb affiliates Vidente and Bucket Studio for free to companies controlled by Won’s children between December 2021 and July 2022, inciting damages worth approximately KRW 58.7 billion to the respective companies. In the process, she was also found to have received KRW 32.2 billion in acquisition payments. Kang Jong-hyun had been detained and on trial since February of this year.Bithumb Live’s largest shareholder, Bucket Studio, is also in a tight spot. Back in June, the Korea Exchange imposed a penalty of three points on Bucket Studio for reversing its disclosure. The company had been penalized five points the previous month after withdrawing its decision to issue convertible bonds. In particular, the studio also recorded an operating loss of KRW 7 billion and a net loss of KRW 195.6 billion last year based on consolidated financial statements. In the first half of this year alone, it suffered an operating loss of KRW 896 million, raising red flags for its management.

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Web3 & Enterprise·

Jul 02, 2024

Japan's Sony to revamp crypto exchange WhaleFin following acquisition

Japanese consumer electronics conglomerate company Sony appears to be gearing up for a cryptocurrency exchange relaunch following its acquisition of WhaleFin. That’s according to a press release published by Japanese public relations company PR Times. Last year, Sony bought Amber Group, a Singapore-headquartered digital asset and crypto financial services firm, which operates crypto exchange WhaleFin. It now appears that the company plans to revamp the local trading platform.  S.BLOX crypto exchangeAmber Group has been renamed to S.BLOX Co. A statement from WhaleFin confirmed the name change. The rebranding has occurred following the acquisition in August 2023 of Amber Group by Quetta Web, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Sony Group Corporation. It also outlined plans to upgrade the service in terms of user experience through a user interface (UI) design refresh. Furthermore, the service plans on releasing new applications going forward.  Part of the strategy is to leverage Sony Group businesses in order to further bootstrap the crypto exchange. Using this approach, the company believes that it can create new added value in cryptocurrency trading services.  The precise launch date of the renewed WhaleFin crypto exchange has yet to be announced. S.BLOX is registered with the Kanto Local Finance Bureau of the Ministry of Finance. Furthermore, it’s a member of the Japan Virtual and Crypto Assets Exchange Association (JVCEA), which oversees cryptocurrency trading within the Japanese jurisdiction from a regulatory and compliance perspective. The exchange business is understood to have a current capitalization of 1,708,179,531 yen (around $10.5 million).Photo by James Feaver on UnsplashWeb3 focusSony has made a concerted effort to expand its activity in the Web3 space. In March 2023, the company filed a patent that aims to enable players of Sony gaming products to access interactive Web3 gameplay. That application will focus on the use use of NFTs. A month earlier, Sony Network Communications, its internet provider division, partnered with the Astar blockchain development team in order to create an incubation program for startups who are working on decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) and NFT-based innovation. The same subsidiary partnered with Japanese blockchain firm Startale Labs last September in order to build Sony’s own public blockchain network. The CEO and founder of Startale Labs, Sota Watanabe, took to the X social media platform on July 1, clarifying that Startale’s external director will be heading up Sony’s new crypto exchange. While Sony has dipped its toe in the water previously relative to Web3 projects, this latest development will see it become more deeply involved in the crypto and Web3 space.  Amber Japan was bought out by crypto finance firm Amber Group in 2022 when it was known at that time as DeCurret. Last year, Bloomberg reported that Amber Group was working towards selling off the enterprise due to difficulties in navigating the strict regulatory environment it encountered within the Japanese market. In a related development, it emerged last month that leading Japanese crypto exchange bitFlyer had acquired FTX Japan, the Japanese subsidiary company of the failed global crypto exchange business.

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Web3 & Enterprise·

Nov 18, 2023

XREX secures MPI license from Singapore regulator

XREX secures MPI license from Singapore regulatorTaipei-based cryptocurrency exchange XREX has received in-principle approval from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) for a Major Payment Institution (MPI) license.Photo by Mark König on UnsplashBitCheck payment tool offeringThe approval marks a crucial step for the fledgling exchange business, enabling it to offer digital payment token products and services in Singapore. Once it’s upgraded to a full license, XREX will be able to expand its BitCheck payment tool, currently facilitating transactions involving fiat currencies, stablecoins and various cryptocurrencies.This regulatory milestone places XREX among the approved exchanges, stablecoin issuers, neobanks and payment service providers in Singapore. Since the introduction of the licensing regime in January 2020, the MAS has received over 580 applications for payment services licenses, with fewer than 20 Digital Payment Token (DPT) licenses and in-principle approvals granted to date. XREX now joins the ranks of established entities like Coinbase, DBS Vickers, Circle, Paxos, Ripple and Revolut in receiving approval from the MAS.Taking to X on Friday, the company acknowledged the license award while outlining that the license would mean that it can now start to offer an e-money issuance service, cross-border money transfers, account issuance services, digital payment token services, as well as merchant acquisition and domestic money transfer services.Serving home and overseas marketsWayne Huang, Co-Founder and Group CEO of XREX, emphasized that XREX Singapore will serve as the primary provider of products across the Asia Pacific (APAC) region. Simultaneously, XREX Taiwan will continue to play a pivotal role in product design, engineering, research and threat analysis functions for the company. Positioning itself as the Asia Pacific headquarters for the group, XREX Singapore aims to target emerging markets in the region where access to USD liquidity may present challenges.Christopher Chye, CEO of XREX Singapore, expressed the significance of the approval, noting the thorough scrutiny by Singapore’s regulatory authorities. Chye stated:“Singapore wants to attract responsible actors, and the reality is that doing so necessitates a fine-tooth comb. This is great for Singapore and great for our industry as a whole. XREX is looking forward to introducing cheaper, safer, and faster domestic and cross-border payments for Singapore and emerging market businesses.”It was no secret that the company had been working towards acquiring a license in Singapore for some time. In December 2022, its Singapore team tweeted out such a claim, adding that an MPI license from MAS “is one of the most coveted and well-regarded licenses worldwide.”Highlighting Singapore’s progressive and robust regulatory framework, Nick Chang, XREX Group and XREX Singapore Head of Compliance, said:“Singapore boasts a progressive and robust regulatory framework, offering our users the clarity and confidence they need to access digital assets and use stablecoins.”XREX has also made in-roads into the European market. In May of last year, the company opened an office in Lithuania, while becoming a crypto asset service provider within the Baltic state. Earlier this year the company strengthened its compliance process by integrating transaction monitoring and investigative tools from blockchain analysis firm Chainalysis.

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