K33: BTC is psychologically oversold, presenting a long-term buying opportunity

Bitcoin's current state, down 36% from its all-time high, represents a psychologically oversold condition that could be a buying opportunity for long-term investors, according to an analysis by K33 Research. The firm noted that over the past month, BTC has underperformed the Nasdaq for approximately 70% of the period while its correlation with U.S. equities has surged. This movement reflects persistent selling pressure in a risk-off environment, leading to a pattern where BTC falls more sharply than U.S. stocks and rebounds more weakly. K33 Research pointed to signs of temporary panic, including a spike in spot trading volume during a recent sharp drop and a net outflow of 62,000 BTC from spot ETFs. Despite recent weakness, the firm argues that the cryptocurrency market is fundamentally different from previous cycles due to significant policy changes, making it a favorable time to begin long-term investing. However, K33 Research cautioned against deploying all capital at once, citing the large open interest (OI) in the perpetual futures market and Bitcoin's tendency to follow a W-shaped recovery pattern.