BTC bottom remains uncertain amid weak on-chain, derivatives, macro signals

Bitcoin has fallen for four consecutive weeks, marking its longest bearish trend in 500 days, and its bottom remains uncertain, according to the latest Bitfinex Alpha weekly report. The cryptocurrency has dropped 30.6% over the past month, a deeper correction than the 24% decline seen earlier in 2024. The report highlights several bearish indicators. On-chain data shows increased capitulation among short-term holders, which has further dampened buying sentiment. In the derivatives market, deleveraging pressure continues, with $3.9 billion in liquidations last week following $19.2 billion on Oct. 10. Meanwhile, major U.S. economic indicators are signaling a slowdown. The delayed September jobs report, while showing stronger-than-expected job growth, also revealed a slightly higher unemployment rate. Amid these market conditions, the report noted significant policy and adoption developments. The U.S. government is proceeding with an IRS review to implement the OECD's Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF), refining its regulatory structure. Additionally, El Salvador has reinforced its national Bitcoin strategy by purchasing another 1,090 BTC, valued at approximately $100 million.