Hong Kong Pressing Banks to Facilitate Crypto Clients

Bullish Market Analysis Finding as Asia Doubles Crypto UsersComing off the back of the last bull run, the crypto sector has been challenged with cooling price levels also affected by global macroeconomic headwinds. Despite that, a recent crypto market study by financial news platform Finbold has found encouragement with a significant increase in crypto users, most notably in Asia.Photo by Jéan Béller on Unsplash37% increase in global usersAccording to the market data presented by Finbold on Thursday, the number of global crypto users has reached 417.5 million as of 2023, representing a year-over-year growth of 36.88%. This translates to an increase of 112.5 million users compared to the 2022 count of 305 million.Several factors contribute to the growth in crypto user numbers. The fear of missing out (FOMO) phenomenon plays a significant role, as individuals see market downturns as an opportunity to enter the market and potentially benefit from their investments.Mainstream adoption and awareness of cryptocurrencies have also attracted new users, aided by the accessibility and convenience of crypto platforms and exchanges. Additionally, the acceptance of cryptocurrencies as a form of payment by businesses has further fueled user growth.In emerging markets with unstable economies and limited access to traditional banking services, cryptocurrencies have been embraced as an alternative and inclusive financial solution, driving adoption in those regions.Standout growth in AsiaAsia leads the way with 260 million users as of May 2023, marking an astonishing 100% growth from the previous year’s figure of 130 million. North America follows with 54 million users, witnessing an addition of 3 million compared to the 2022 count of 51 million.When examining crypto ownership in relation to the population of each country, Thailand claims the top spot in 2023 with a share of 9.32%. India comes in second with 7.23%, followed by Brazil at 6.98%. Pakistan ranks fourth with 6.4%, while France rounds out the top five with 5.9%.Observers believe that regional crypto user trends will be influenced by regulations. Asia dominates the market, driven by the increasing adoption of blockchain-based payment solutions in countries like India, China, Singapore, South Korea, and Japan, particularly within the banking, financial services, and insurance sectors.African & European user declineAfrica experienced a decline of 28%, going from 53 million to 38 million users. Similarly, European users dropped from 43 million to 31 million. Notably, Europe has witnessed a drop in usage, coinciding with the enactment of the Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) law, which aims to create a legal framework for the crypto asset market.The growth in global user numbers is remarkable, considering the challenging phase the crypto sector has been going through. High-profile incidents, including the FTX crypto exchange collapse and the Terra (LUNA) ecosystem crash, have eroded trust within the sector. Moreover, the crypto market has had to navigate an uncertain regulatory landscape, with jurisdictions like the United States cracking down on the sector.Lawsuits filed by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) against Ripple, Binance, and Coinbase for alleged securities laws violations are likely to discourage investor involvement. Regions with stricter regulations, such as North America and Europe, are expected to lose crypto business to the Asia-Pacific region.

Korean Crypto Exchange Presents Bitcoin Forecasts for Three ScenariosRecently, concerns over a potential US default have heightened due to the ongoing disagreement between Republicans and Democrats in the US Congress regarding the necessity of increasing the debt ceiling. Democrats, along with the Biden administration, advocate for authorizing additional debt, while Republicans propose spending cuts.Considering the historical patterns observed in the US and the inherently political nature of this matter, it is improbable that the uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling raise will endure for an extended period. In the past, when faced with a similar situation in 2011, the debt ceiling was ultimately approved despite significant political divisions. Particularly with upcoming elections next year and escalating concerns of an economic downturn, it is likely that a resolution to the debt ceiling issue will be reached soon.In light of these circumstances, the economic research institute at one of South Korea’s major crypto exchanges Bithumb released a report that outlines three distinct scenarios depicting the potential unfolding of the debt ceiling issue in the US. Additionally, it has offered insights into the potential implications for Bitcoin under each scenario.Photo by Shubham’s Web3 on UnsplashBipartisan agreement to increase the debt ceilingIn the scenario where the debt ceiling is promptly raised as a result of a significant bipartisan agreement, the US is anticipated to adopt an expansionary fiscal policy by issuing government bonds to prevent a default. If a debt ceiling deal is reached, it is projected that short-term bond issuance will reach a net amount of $1.4 trillion by the end of the year. There is also a growing consensus that medium- and long-term bond issuance may commence in the third quarter. Additionally, the possibility of interest rate cuts as early as the second half of this year entered the equation. In the long term, this could potentially lead to a depreciation of the dollar as market liquidity increases, thereby weakening the currency. It is worth noting that historically, the value of Bitcoin tended to go up when market liquidity rises.Debt ceiling disagreement and delayed negotiationsAnother scenario entails the failure of the two parties to reach an agreement and a subsequent delay in approving a raise to the debt ceiling. Should the debt ceiling not be raised in a timely manner, the US would potentially encounter an unparalleled default on its debt obligations. This default could trigger a severe credit crunch, resulting from international credit downgrades and a weakened global standing for the US. Such circumstances would further escalate the risk of an economic crisis.As the negotiations on the debt limit continue to be delayed, there will be a prolonged period of uncertainty in both Treasury issuance and secondary markets. This uncertainty poses risks to money market funds (MMFs) that hold a significant portion of short-term Treasuries, potentially resulting in losses. Consequently, there could be a shift towards reverse repo (RRP) transactions as investors seek alternative avenues. In fact, Treasury liquidity has recently exhibited signs of deterioration, with MMFs and RRPs garnering considerable attention in the market.Heightened concerns regarding short-term Treasuries could lead to a higher volume of reverse repo trades compared to repo trades. Repo transactions use Treasuries as collateral, whereas reverse repo transactions involve depositing funds with the Fed or lending money to the Fed in exchange for collateral, which often includes Treasuries, thereby earning interest. In such a scenario, market liquidity could become trapped in the Fed, potentially rekindling risks within the banking system.Given their sensitivity to liquidity conditions, crypto markets are anticipated to experience a temporary decline. However, Bitcoin has exhibited a historical pattern of appreciating in value as an alternative to the US banking system, especially during instances of small and medium-sized bank failures. In the event of prolonged negotiations and an escalating risk of a US default, the demand for safe-haven assets like Bitcoin might surge. As a result, Bitcoin could gain favorability as investors seek refuge in alternative assets amidst uncertain market conditions.Linking debt ceiling increase to spending reductionThe last scenario involves a conditional agreement accompanied by measures aimed at reducing the deficit, as proposed by Republicans. Given the longstanding concerns surrounding excessive US deficits, any agreement to raise the debt ceiling would likely be contingent upon fiscal consolidation and spending cuts. Notably, as of March 31, 2023, the US federal deficit is approximately 8% of GDP, a figure comparable to the 8.3% average observed in 2011 when the possibility of a US default reached its peak.While fiscal consolidation is necessary to ensure fiscal sustainability, unless the US significantly increases tax revenues, an increase in the debt ceiling may be negotiated at the expense of significant cuts to the national budget. In such a case, the US economy would inevitably experience the adverse effects of reduced government spending.The Republican party has put forth a demand of $4.8 trillion in deficit reduction over the next ten years as a condition for raising the debt ceiling. This figure translates to an average of $480 billion per year or approximately 1.8% of the current year’s GDP (as of May). However, it is important to note that in the medium to long term, reductions in government spending without complementary expansionary monetary policies have the potential to accelerate GDP decline. If Congress agrees to cuts in government spending, it could increase the probability of the Fed swiftly reversing its tightening policy. Unless the Fed halts its tightening measures, the likelihood of a US recession may become more pronounced.If the Fed decides to cut interest rates earlier than anticipated in response to the Treasury’s fiscal consolidation efforts, Bitcoin, which is known to be more responsive to long-term monetary policy, might be able to overcome the short-term downturn and experience an upward trend.The authors contend that at present, market attention is primarily directed towards the matter of raising the debt ceiling, taking into account the potential risks of a US default and the possibility of a bond rating downgrade. However, they believe it is unlikely that US politicians will make radical decisions in the run-up to next year’s presidential election.While the issue of raising the debt ceiling will have a short-term impact, the report argues that the main drivers of Bitcoin’s price in the medium to long term will be the Fed’s monetary policy and the occurrence of Bitcoin’s halving event.It is important to note that there is a time lag between the end of the Fed’s tightening measures and the halving of Bitcoin. In the short term, the price trajectory of Bitcoin will likely be influenced by factors such as the potential failure of additional small and medium-sized US banks (which is concerning given recent outflows of US bank deposits) and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to the delay in raising the debt ceiling. These factors will play a greater role in shaping Bitcoin’s short-term performance.

South Korean digital marketing firm FSN has entered into a strategic alliance with Fingo Company, the operator of the music copyright platform Fingo, to jointly work on a tokenized securities project based on the recently raised funds, according to local news site Newsis on Monday (KST).Photo by Chris Liverani on UnsplashUnlocking synergiesThrough this partnership, FSN and Fingo aim to collaborate on a token securities project. As both companies have experience in leveraging IP, they are expected to apply their expertise to the new business. In particular, FSN operates several IP-based Web3 projects such as Sunmiya Club and Bellygom NFT through its subsidiary Finger Labs, through which the firm has been demonstrating its competitive edge. Fingo also owns a variety of content-based IPs and is cooperating with major domestic securities companies. The two firms’ business capabilities are thus expected to create great synergy in the market. Fingo’s service allows anyone to share revenue made from music, a concept referred to as music revenue sharing, which was once limited to creators or singers only. Last year, it took a step into the tokenized securities sphere by signing a business deal with Mirae Asset Securities, the country’s largest asset manager, to establish a token securities service and launch innovative financial investment products. FSN has been gearing up to take on this collaborative project, namely a recent success in raising a total of KRW 10 billion (approximately $7.5 million) in funding. The company explained that with this considerable funding paired with its knowledge of Web3 and blockchain technology and experience in collaborative partnerships, it will be equipped to settle into the tokenized securities market seamlessly. Charting new horizons"As we have secured large-scale funding under stable conditions, we expect to successfully pursue new businesses, including that in tokenized securities," FSN CEO Lee Sang-seok said. "We will steadily expand new businesses by establishing partnerships with companies with competitiveness in various areas, starting with Fingo Company, which has a competitive edge in tokenized securities and music IP," he said.