Top

Maelstrom CIO predicts temporary bitcoin plunge

Markets·January 06, 2024, 1:49 AM

As the cryptocurrency market anticipates the approval of a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States and the subsequent boost to bitcoin’s unit price, Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of family office Maelstrom, has issued a warning of potential market turbulence.

 

Hayes, better known as the founder of crypto derivatives platform BitMEX, has moved on to Hong Kong-based Maelstrom, a family office that invests in early stage infrastructure ventures that implicate a move towards the decentralization of everything.

Photo by Kanchanara on Unsplash

Macroeconomic risk factors

In a detailed blog post on Friday, Hayes outlines a number of macroeconomic variables that could lead to a bitcoin unit price downturn.

 

Hayes begins by highlighting the depletion of the Federal Reserve’s reverse repo program (RRP), which has served as a significant driver for risky assets over the past year. This program allows qualified banks and investment firms to park cash and earn interest on it. The RRP balance has rapidly declined from a record high of $2.5 trillion at the end of 2022 to $700 billion. Hayes projects it to reach its historical average of $200 billion by March. As this liquidity source dwindles, he anticipates negative impacts on bonds and stocks, as well as cryptocurrencies.

 

Fed BTFP expiration

The second factor contributing to the potential market turmoil is the expiration of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) on March 12. This crucial Fed facility is designed to provide longer-term loans to commercial banks. The mechanism aids banking sector stability.

 

Hayes is concerned that the BTFP might not be extended. Such an eventuality could lead to bankruptcy for banks holding massive unrealized losses on their bond holdings. It could lead to a “liquidity rug pull” event reminiscent of the banking crisis in March of the previous year.

 

The crypto OG predicts that such an eventuality would force a response. “The combination of a lack of liquidity gushing from the RRP and the lack of printed money to cover the bond losses on banks’ balance sheets will decimate the financial markets globally,” he wrote.

 

Hayes asserts that the combination of reduced liquidity from the RRP and the lack of printed money to cover bond losses could have a global impact on financial markets. In response to this scenario, he predicts that the Fed will cut interest rates during its March 20 meeting and reinstate the BTFP funding line.

 

‘Healthy’ correction

In terms of bitcoin’s price, Hayes foresees a “healthy” correction of 20% to 30% from early March prices if the outlined scenario unfolds. However, he suggests the decline could be as much as 40% if BTC rallies to $60,000-$70,000 in the coming weeks. Despite this temporary plunge, Hayes remains optimistic about bitcoin’s resilience, emphasizing its status as a neutral reserve hard currency that is not a liability of the banking system and is traded globally.

 

In a recent podcast appearance, Hayes expressed the view that the business model of U.S. dollar stablecoin issuer Tether will be challenged once multinational banks receive the go-ahead to offer fiat-backed stablecoins.

 

Overall, Arthur Hayes has urged investors to be cautious and to prepare for potential market volatility in March, emphasizing the importance of understanding the interconnected factors influencing both traditional finance and the cryptocurrency market.

 

More to Read
View All
Web3 & Enterprise·

Aug 04, 2023

Huobi Co-Founder Acquires 10 Million CRV Tokens

Huobi Co-Founder Acquires 10 Million CRV TokensJun Du, Chinese Co-Founder of Seychelles-headquartered global crypto exchange Huobi, has recently completed the purchase of 10 million curve tokens (CRV) from Curve founder Michael Egorov.Photo by Growtika on UnsplashCurve protocol loan exposureThe transaction amounted to $4 million and is part of Egorov’s ongoing efforts to mitigate his at-risk loan exposure, a further consequence of last week’s $52 million hack of the Curve DeFi protocol.Initially, Du expressed his interest in acquiring 10 million CRV tokens at the prevailing rate of $0.40. This price aligned with multiple over-the-counter (OTC) agreements between Egorov and various cryptocurrency individuals. According to a report by The Block, Du later confirmed the purchase through a Twitter direct message, revealing that he had chosen to lock up the acquired tokens as veCRV. This lock-up mechanism grants voting rights within the Curve platform while requiring the tokens to remain locked for a specified duration.“I intend to uphold this lock-up for at least a year, with optimism for continuous improvements within the Curve ecosystem,” Du stated, highlighting his commitment to the project’s long-term growth.On his Twitter account, Du emphasized his unwavering support for Curve, drawing parallels to his past backing of BendDAO during a liquidity crisis. He clarified: “Challenges faced now are transient, and collective support will foster a stronger industry.”Alongside being a Co-Founder at Huobi, Du holds the positions of CEO at New Huo Tech, a digital asset service platform, and Co-Founder and General Partner (GP) at the Web3 fund ABCDE.Ongoing token sell-offIn actively managing liquidation risk, Egorov is persistently offloading CRV tokens to bolster his loan position, given his significant exposure. He has utilized multiple DeFi lending platforms to secure loans, predominantly employing CRV tokens as collateral to borrow stablecoins. His borrowing activity on platforms like Aave alone has involved $56 million in stablecoins against $149 million worth of CRV collateral.Egorov’s health ratings on these platforms have improved recently, hovering around 1.67 or higher. Nonetheless, there remains a lingering risk associated with potential liquidation of his positions if CRV’s price were to dip substantially. This could potentially lead to bad debt scenarios for the platforms, particularly due to the substantial proportion of CRV supply involved.Sales of 72 million CRVEgorov’s token sales have amounted to 72 million CRV, according to Nansen analyst Sandra Leow. Notable recipients of these tokens include Tron Founder Justin Sun, crypto trader “DCFGod,” and Andrew Kang, Co-Founder of Mechanism Capital.Aave Chan Initiative, an entity tied to the Aave protocol, has proposed that the Aave treasury allocate funds to purchase up to $2 million worth of CRV tokens. The intention is to lock up these tokens as veCRV for an extended period, potentially up to four years. This move is aimed at further reinforcing the stability of CRV’s market dynamics.

news
Web3 & Enterprise·

Jul 24, 2023

Dunamu’s Luxury Watch Trading Platform Appoints New C-Suite Executives

Dunamu’s Luxury Watch Trading Platform Appoints New C-Suite ExecutivesViver, the luxury watch trading platform and subsidiary of Dunamu, the operator of South Korean cryptocurrency exchange Upbit, has recently made c-suite appointments, as reported by local news outlet News1.Photo by Jaelynn Castillo on UnsplashNew appointmentsThe new CEO of Viver, Moon Jae-yeon, brings a wealth of expertise in running online e-commerce platforms. Before joining Viver, Moon held the position of Chief Strategy Officer (CSO) at Market Kurly, an online platform famous for its early-morning grocery deliveries. Prior to that, he worked at eBay Korea for 17 years.Joining Moon is Seo Hee-sun, who assumes the role of Chief Operating Officer (COO) at Viver. Seo has an impressive background as the Business Group Manager at 11th Street, a major online shopping website in the nation, and has accumulated over two decades of experience in this field.Luxury watchesEstablished just two years ago, Viver aims to leverage Dunamu’s digital asset business know-how to set new standards for trading luxury watches, which serve as both real-world assets and investment vehicles. The appointment of these industry experts is a major step towards achieving this goal.Last year, Viver made noticeable strides in expanding its services. The platform launched its own online application service and also opened a brick-and-mortar store in Apgujeon Rodeo, a bustling hub for fashion enthusiasts in Seoul. Moreover, Viver Labs, the watch trading platform’s repair service, offers expert diagnosis and repair of watches from various high-end brands, including Rolex and Audemars Piguet.Moon has expressed his ambition to elevate Viver’s reputation to the level of renowned timepiece e-commerce platforms like WatchBox in the US and Chrono24 in Germany within the next five years. He emphasized that the company intends to take advantage of Dunamu’s cutting-edge blockchain technology and infrastructure to gain a competitive edge in the market.

news
Web3 & Enterprise·

Oct 27, 2023

Rotonda and Hancom Frontis Join Forces for Web3 Ecosystem Growth

Rotonda and Hancom Frontis Join Forces for Web3 Ecosystem GrowthRotonda, the subsidiary of Korean cryptocurrency exchange Bithumb and the operator of cryptocurrency wallet platform Burrito Wallet, has recently announced a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Hancom Frontis. This strategic partnership is geared towards accelerating the growth of the Web3 ecosystem.Photo by Shubham’s Web3 on Unsplash3D metaverse platformIn April, Hancom Frontis officially launched a 3D metaverse platform known as a:rz META. This platform offers a wide array of services, including virtual meetings, online education, and telemedicine, all facilitated by the integration of blockchain-powered digital assets.With the introduction of a:rz META, Hancom Frontis has shifted its focus to Web3-based businesses. The company aims to expand its user base globally through a series of gradual updates.Fostering mutual growthThrough this partnership, both entities are set to embark on several collaborative initiatives aimed at fostering mutual growth. These efforts include sharing resources like personnel, materials, and information, as well as strengthening their business networks. They will jointly engage in research and development of blockchain-based services and work towards enhancing policies for these offerings.Shin Min-cheol, CEO of Burrito Wallet, expressed excitement about their collaboration, stating that their joint efforts would lead to the creation of an advanced blockchain environment that boasts enhanced technology and services. He also highlighted that Burrito Wallet’s ongoing partnerships with businesses across different sectors would solidify the company’s position in the market as a distinguished wallet provider that offers practical services.Recently, Burrito Wallet has taken a significant step towards its global expansion by signing a partnership with Japanese blockchain gaming platform Oasys. Meanwhile, the Korean wallet firm has also expanded its support to 11 mainnets, consistently implementing updates to enhance user-friendliness of the platform.

news
Loading