Shapella Upgrade to Have limited Impact on ETH’s Selling Pressure
The Shapella upgrade on the Ethereum network scheduled to take place on Wednesday will only have a limited impact on the selling pressure on ETH, according to a report by the research center at Korean cryptocurrency exchange Korbit.
Shapella upgrade
One of the key features of the Shapella upgrade is to allow withdrawal of staked ETH. This upgrade follows September’s Merge upgrade that switched the Ethereum network’s consensus algorithm from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake, significantly reducing electricity consumption.
Impact on selling pressure
To predict the impact of the Shapella upgrade on the selling pressure on ETH, the analysts at Korbit Research calculated the amount of time it takes for all the ETH staked as of March 22 to be withdrawn. They believe this calculation is relevant because withdrawals of staked ETH could trigger bulk sales, potentially imposing a greater selling pressure on ETH.
According to the findings, the daily sell volume for the first three days is expected to be 300,700 ETH, 0.254% of the circulating supply. This volume will gradually decrease to 43,000 ETH for the next six months and to 29,000 ETH for the following six months, each corresponding to 0.035% and 0.024% of the circulating supply, respectively.
All in all, bulk selling of ETH is not likely, considering it will take about a year and five months for all the staked ETH to be withdrawn and that the amount of withdrawable ETH will stay relatively low for each period. Furthermore, since this analysis assumes an extreme case, the market will be able to effectively handle the volume over the six month to 18 month period.
4 other reasons
In addition, Korbit Research outlined four other aspects that limit the selling pressure on ETH.
Firstly, there is some concern that the selling volume of ETH may increase due to unstaking resulting from the cessation of staking services at American crypto exchange Kraken. However, a decrease in the number of validators on the Ethereum network will raise the base reward. This may prompt those who unstaked ETH to stake them on other platforms, rather than selling them.
Second, ETH locked up at liquidity staking protocols such as Lido Finance and Rocket Pool provide liquidity for representations of staked ETH. These platforms allow users to stake fewer than 32 ETH for rewards. According to a February Binance Research report, 57.7% of ETH stakers enjoy liquidity and rewards. Therefore, there may be a limited impetus to divest of staked ETH.
Third, since only 41.1% of ETH stakers are seeing profits as of the time of writing the report, the remaining stakers would have to risk losses when withdrawing ETH. This suggests that those not yet seeing profits are more likely to keep ETH staked. Furthermore, Dune Analytics data shows that most of the ETH stakers with gains staked ETH when its price was relatively low, which indicates that they participated in staking in early days. Shivam Sharma, the author of the aforementioned Binance report, states that these ETH stakers are likely “some of the strongest Ethereum believers.”
Lastly, despite the Shapella upgrade, ETH withdrawals at different staking pools may not be initiated immediately. This could limit the circulation of withdrawable ETH, which in turn would hinder the selling pressure on ETH.
Macroeconomic factors
The Korbit researchers concluded their paper with a note that the selling pressure on ETH will be more influenced by macroeconomic factors than technical factors. They added that a possible downturn in the overall economy and corrections in risky asset markets might lead investors to sell ETH.
