Thailand makes crypto trading VAT-free to boost digital economy

Illicit Crypto Activities Estimated to Have Surpassed $100 Billion in S.E. AsiaA recent analysis by blockchain analytics firm Bitrace has found that over $100 billion worth of digital currency has been used in illicit crypto trading activities in Southeast Asia.Photo by Bermix Studio on UnsplashThe firm provided details of its analysis via X (formerly Twitter) on Monday. The data underscores the extensive scope of unlawful activities involving cryptocurrencies across Southeast Asia. The analysis further revealed that illicit activities involve fraudulent schemes, online gambling, and money laundering.Misuse of digital asset innovationSome of the key characteristics of digital assets include the ability to maintain anonymity, decentralization, and borderless transactions, which are generally considered positive attributes. However, the very nature of decentralized cryptocurrency means that nobody dictates who uses it or the purpose for which someone decides to use it. With that, these characteristics have rendered illegal undertakings not only more covert but also facilitated expedited transfers of pilfered resources.The silver lining, however, rests in the inherent transparency of blockchain ledgers. This quality has enabled Bitrace’s team of encryption analysts to trace funds implicated in illicit ventures through intensive on-chain analysis.Key insightsThe Bitrace research points towards the following key insights:Prevalence of Tether (USDT): The use of USDT has gained prominence in both illicit activities and gambling operations throughout Southeast Asia, with a staggering sum of over 115 billion USDT recorded in 2022 alone.Shift to Top Trading Platforms: USDT is observed to migrate from unlawful platforms within Southeast Asia towards top-tier trading platforms. Particularly favored by operators and gamblers, a significant proportion hails from the Chinese demographic, consistently gravitating towards specific exchanges.Inflow into Trading Platforms: A noteworthy development emerges as over 14.6 billion USDT prepares to traverse into trading platform accounts. The mounting risk factor diffuses across an expanding spectrum of addresses and platforms.Likely consequencesIf this blockchain analysis is found to be accurate, there are likely to be ramifications for all projects operating in the digital assets, DeFi and Web3 space. It comes at a time when the focus on the regulation of crypto-related businesses is more intense than ever before.Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Know Your Transaction (KYT) legislation are cornerstone financial services regulations that have been established on a global basis. If these regulations are being flouted, and crypto is being used as a means to circumvent them, there’s a real risk that regulation could be applied heavy-handedly to counteract that threat of widespread illicit activity.Global crypto exchange Binance has faced criticism in this context, with a suggestion in March that its Turkey-based exchange service had been used by an organization connected with militant group Hamas for money laundering and terrorist financing.In a report last week, Binance claimed that it shared information with authorities that led to the capture of senior ISIS members. More such cooperation will likely be necessary to prevent the sector being subject to overzealous regulation.

A spot Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) is set to debut in Hong Kong next week, according to the South China Morning Post. Managed by ChinaAMC (HK), the Hong Kong subsidiary of Chinese financial services company China Asset Management, the product will begin trading on Oct. 27 and will be available against both Hong Kong and U.S. dollars. The Hong Kong listing comes amid growing global interest in Solana-based investment products. While this marks a first for the city, the first country to trade a spot Solana ETF was Canada, where four products from 3iQ, Purpose, Evolve, and CI Financial went live on the Toronto Stock Exchange in April 2025.Photo by GuerrillaBuzz on UnsplashU.S. institutions await regulatory approvalIn the U.S., institutional interest is also high, though a product has yet to be approved. According to Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, 23 separate ETP filings for Solana have been submitted in the U.S. This matches Bitcoin, with both assets having the highest number of filings among 35 cryptocurrencies tracked, out of a total of 155 crypto ETP filings overall. The push for exchange-traded products mirrors rising institutional investment in the Solana ecosystem itself. Several firms have recently established corporate SOL treasuries. Forward Industries spent $1.6 billion on its treasury and filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to raise up to $4 billion from share sales to acquire more SOL. Similarly, Sharps Technology announced a collaboration with Coinbase Global to expand its reserve strategy, and an SEC filing showed that Citadel and its affiliates hold a portion of the outstanding shares in DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV), another SOL treasury firm. Uniswap expands to Solana networkSolana's platform has also seen wider technical integration. On Oct. 16, the decentralized exchange Uniswap began supporting the network, allowing its users to connect Solana wallets and swap SOL tokens. Uniswap stated the move helps address fragmentation issues by supporting both Solana and Ethereum, the two largest DeFi ecosystems. According to DefiLlama data, SOL currently boasts $10.88 billion in total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance, while ETH TVL amounts to $83 billion. Separately, the Solana team recently promoted the network's technical resilience. Following a recent Amazon Web Services (AWS) outage, the team shared an analysis on X indicating a 97.6 resilience index, noting that only 77 of its 1,295 nodes were affected, suggesting a 6% dependency on AWS. Market performance lags despite growthDespite these developments, the price of SOL, the sixth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has not reflected the positive sentiment in the short term. Trading at roughly $186, SOL is down 13.74% over the past month, according to Kraken data. The asset remains 36.49% below its all-time high of $293.31, which was reached on Jan. 19, 2025.

As the cryptocurrency market anticipates the approval of a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States and the subsequent boost to bitcoin’s unit price, Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of family office Maelstrom, has issued a warning of potential market turbulence. Hayes, better known as the founder of crypto derivatives platform BitMEX, has moved on to Hong Kong-based Maelstrom, a family office that invests in early stage infrastructure ventures that implicate a move towards the decentralization of everything.Photo by Kanchanara on UnsplashMacroeconomic risk factorsIn a detailed blog post on Friday, Hayes outlines a number of macroeconomic variables that could lead to a bitcoin unit price downturn. Hayes begins by highlighting the depletion of the Federal Reserve’s reverse repo program (RRP), which has served as a significant driver for risky assets over the past year. This program allows qualified banks and investment firms to park cash and earn interest on it. The RRP balance has rapidly declined from a record high of $2.5 trillion at the end of 2022 to $700 billion. Hayes projects it to reach its historical average of $200 billion by March. As this liquidity source dwindles, he anticipates negative impacts on bonds and stocks, as well as cryptocurrencies. Fed BTFP expirationThe second factor contributing to the potential market turmoil is the expiration of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) on March 12. This crucial Fed facility is designed to provide longer-term loans to commercial banks. The mechanism aids banking sector stability. Hayes is concerned that the BTFP might not be extended. Such an eventuality could lead to bankruptcy for banks holding massive unrealized losses on their bond holdings. It could lead to a “liquidity rug pull” event reminiscent of the banking crisis in March of the previous year. The crypto OG predicts that such an eventuality would force a response. “The combination of a lack of liquidity gushing from the RRP and the lack of printed money to cover the bond losses on banks’ balance sheets will decimate the financial markets globally,” he wrote. Hayes asserts that the combination of reduced liquidity from the RRP and the lack of printed money to cover bond losses could have a global impact on financial markets. In response to this scenario, he predicts that the Fed will cut interest rates during its March 20 meeting and reinstate the BTFP funding line. ‘Healthy’ correctionIn terms of bitcoin’s price, Hayes foresees a “healthy” correction of 20% to 30% from early March prices if the outlined scenario unfolds. However, he suggests the decline could be as much as 40% if BTC rallies to $60,000-$70,000 in the coming weeks. Despite this temporary plunge, Hayes remains optimistic about bitcoin’s resilience, emphasizing its status as a neutral reserve hard currency that is not a liability of the banking system and is traded globally. In a recent podcast appearance, Hayes expressed the view that the business model of U.S. dollar stablecoin issuer Tether will be challenged once multinational banks receive the go-ahead to offer fiat-backed stablecoins. Overall, Arthur Hayes has urged investors to be cautious and to prepare for potential market volatility in March, emphasizing the importance of understanding the interconnected factors influencing both traditional finance and the cryptocurrency market.