Japan targets 2028 for crypto ETF approval as global markets weigh U.S. risks
Japan is taking steps to approve exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking spot cryptocurrency prices, a regulatory shift that could take effect as early as 2028, according to a CoinPost report citing a Jan. 25 article by Nikkei.
The timeline reflects the legislative steps required before retail investors can access digital assets through traditional brokerage accounts. Japan’s financial regulator, the Financial Services Agency (FSA), plans to amend investment regulations to permit cryptocurrencies as eligible assets for investment trusts.
SBI, Nomura prepare crypto products
According to the report, major financial heavyweights, including SBI Holdings and Nomura Holdings, are already developing products in anticipation of regulatory approval. If cleared by the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the listings would allow Japanese investors to trade Bitcoin products alongside standard stock or gold ETFs.
Institutional interest appears robust. A Nikkei survey conducted in November identified six major firms weighing the development of crypto investment trusts: Nomura Asset Management, SBI Global Asset Management, Daiwa, Asset Management One, Amova, and Mitsubishi UFJ. These companies are reportedly exploring products tailored for both retail and institutional clients.
However, the 2028 target is largely dictated by the pace of tax reform. Government plans call for crypto profits to be taxed at a uniform 20%, replacing the current progressive system and putting digital assets on the same footing as equities and foreign exchange. The revised tax treatment would also apply to crypto ETFs and derivatives. At present, crypto gains are treated as miscellaneous income, leaving investors subject to progressive tax rates that can climb to roughly 55% once local levies are included.
Crypto market slides amid volatility
As Japan maps out its long-term regulatory course, recent market activity has been volatile, tied to potential currency interventions and U.S. political uncertainty.
Bitcoin briefly surged to $91,000 over the weekend, a move CoinDesk reports some traders attribute to suspected Japanese intervention in the foreign exchange market. The theory suggests a transient reversal in the yen’s recent weakness forced an unwinding of leveraged carry trades, temporarily boosting the world’s largest cryptocurrency.
However, the momentum was short-lived. Bitcoin is currently trading near $87,500, down 1.45% over the previous 24 hours. Market sentiment has been dampened by fears of a U.S. government shutdown and renewed trade tensions. On the prediction market platform Polymarket, participants have priced in a 78% chance of another government shutdown by Jan. 31.
Compounding investor anxiety are President Donald Trump’s tariff threats. Trump recently warned he would impose 100% tariffs on Canada should the U.S. neighbor sign a trade deal with China. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has since announced that Ottawa has no plans to forge such an agreement, according to CNBC.
Monetary policy remains a headwind for risk assets. Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision this week, the CME FedWatch Tool indicates traders expect the central bank to hold rates steady in the 3.5% to 3.75% range at the Jan. 28 meeting. Markets are pricing in only a 2.8% chance of a 0.5% cut. The prospect of rates remaining unchanged offers little incentive for investors to pivot aggressively toward riskier assets like crypto.
Gold, silver reach record levels
This risk-averse environment has funneled capital into precious metals, driving prices to record levels. Both gold and silver have hit all-time highs, surpassing $5,000 per ounce and $106 per ounce, respectively.
Amid the uncertainty, retail investors in neighboring markets are showing caution. In South Korea, a weekly survey by CoinNess and Cratos of 2,000 respondents found that 43.2% of investors are holding existing crypto positions without making additional purchases. Another 22.7% said they are actively trading, while 21.4% reported having no current position and waiting for a more favorable entry point. The remaining 12.7% said they are staying out of the market entirely.
