Polymarket accuracy reaches 94%, study shows

Web3 prediction platform Polymarket has shown strong forecasting performance, predicting certain events with nearly 90% accuracy, according to CoinDesk, which cited a Dune dashboard by data scientist Alex McCullough. In an interview with Polymarket’s The Oracle blog, McCullough explained that the platform slightly overestimates probabilities. He noted that long-term markets can appear more accurate because they include easier predictions that involve highly unlikely outcomes. For example, a market on California Governor Gavin Newsom becoming president looked accurate simply because the outcome was never likely. Including such obvious results makes Polymarket’s overall accuracy seem higher than it actually is. McCullough said that limiting the focus to markets like head-to-head sports events presents a better representation of predictive accuracy, given that the outcomes are less extreme and more balanced.