Crypto’s four‑year cycle theory falters, Bitwise CIO says

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan argued via X that the traditional four‑year crypto cycle is weakening as key drivers such as block halving importance, negative rate cycles and blow‑up risk diminish, even as rising Treasury companies pose a new cyclical threat. He noted that longer‑term forces—spot Bitcoin ETFs, broad institutional adoption and multi‑year regulatory reforms under the U.S. GENIUS Act—are gaining momentum and could create a sustained steady boom rather than a classic super‑cycle. While volatility remains likely, Hougan expects these pro‑crypto trends to carry the market into a strong 2026.