Glassnode: It's too early to call a crypto winter

Claims that the market has entered a "crypto winter," or a prolonged bear market, are premature and lack sufficient evidence, according to a new report from Glassnode and Fasanara Digital. The firms argue that the current phase is a mid-cycle consolidation, citing several key indicators. The report notes that capital inflows during this Bitcoin cycle exceed all previous cycles combined, and spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see sustained demand, now holding 1.36 million BTC (6.9% of the circulating supply). Bitcoin’s price action likewise diverges from past crypto winters: the asset is trading closer to this year’s peak of $124,000 than to its cycle low of $76,000, whereas earlier winters saw BTC sliding toward the bottom of its range. Key bear market signals are also absent. One-year realized volatility has fallen from 84% to 43%, contrary to the rising volatility seen at the start of past winters. Additionally, there is no evidence of collapsing miner hash prices or accumulating realized losses among long-term holders. The report concludes that recent price action resembles patterns from 2017, 2020, and 2023, which were followed by rallies, suggesting the current weakness is a temporary phenomenon.