New whales now control BTC, signaling continued selling pressure, analyst says

Control over Bitcoin's price has shifted from long-term holders to newer large-scale investors, according to an analysis by CryptoQuant contributor MorenoDV. The analyst noted that new whales, defined as those holding BTC for less than 155 days and with balances over $1,000, now represent a larger share of Bitcoin's realized capitalization than original, long-term whales. This indicates a decisive shift in control over the Bitcoin supply, with a significant portion having been traded at recent high prices. The shift is critical to understanding current market dynamics, as the new whales have a realized price of approximately $98,000, well above the current spot price. As a result, this group is currently sitting on about $6 billion in unrealized losses, a factor that directly influences their trading behavior. On-chain data shows that these new whales have been the primary source of realized losses since the cycle's peak. They have repeatedly sold into price declines and used short-term bounces to exit positions, demonstrating a focus on risk management rather than conviction. In contrast, the original whales, with a realized price of around $40,000, remain substantially profitable. While they have engaged in some profit-taking, their transaction volume is minor compared to the newer cohort. MorenoDV concluded that the market's direction is now being dictated by these new whales. Until their losses are fully absorbed by the market, either through capitulation or a price recovery, a seller-dominated environment is likely to persist for Bitcoin.