Wintermute: Current decline unlike FTX, Luna; market to see volatility until H2

The cryptocurrency market is expected to face continued volatility until policy uncertainty is resolved in the second half of the year, according to an analysis by crypto market maker Wintermute. The firm noted that Bitcoin fell below $80,000 for the first time since the tariff incident last April, triggering $2.55 billion in forced liquidations across the crypto market. Wintermute stated that this decline was not caused by a single negative event but by a combination of macroeconomic factors, including disappointing earnings from the U.S. Magnificent Seven companies, the nomination of known hawk Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair, and a cooling of the overheated precious metals sector. The firm highlighted a key difference from the past collapses of FTX and Luna, explaining that the current downturn is a result of a changing macro environment and position liquidations, not structural bankruptcies. Wintermute concluded that with stronger crypto infrastructure and continued stablecoin adoption, market sentiment could recover quickly once the Fed's policy path becomes clear in the second half of the year.