BTC unlikely to see 80% drop like past bear markets, analyst says
February 04, 2026, 3:45 PM
Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, has analyzed that while Bitcoin has fallen approximately 40% from its all-time high, a complete repeat of past bear market scenarios is unlikely. He stated that the four-year cycle is no longer valid. According to Lunde, an 80% drop like those seen in previous bear markets will not occur due to increased institutional investment, the influx of regulated products, and an environment of interest rate cuts. He added that $74,000 is a key support level, and if BTC falls below it, the decline could accelerate toward the November 2021 high of around $69,000 or the 200-week moving average at $58,000.
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