Analyst: BTC may be in early bear market, not a simple correction

The current cryptocurrency market may not be in a simple correction phase within a bull market but rather at the beginning of a structural bear market, according to a CryptoQuant post by crypto analyst XWIN Research Japan. The analyst explained that while there is downward pressure on BTC, market participants are not accepting this reality. This reluctance is influenced by the experience of the 2022 bear market and a belief that the market's more robust structure—including the introduction of spot ETFs, increased institutional participation, and improved infrastructure—makes a sharp downturn unlikely. However, XWIN Research argued that a bear market is defined by supply and demand, capital flows, and shifts in investor sentiment, not just price. The Fear & Greed Index has entered the "Extreme Fear" zone, indicating a significant contraction in market sentiment. The analyst noted that past cycles have repeatedly shown sentiment weakening before a major price correction. BTC has likely already entered a "crypto winter," but the current price levels and the strengthened market structure have only delayed participants' recognition of this fact, the post added. The outlook could change if ETF inflows stabilize and on-chain selling pressure subsides.