CME FedWatch: Traders see 94% chance of Fed holding rates in March
February 11, 2026, 3:42 PM
Traders are pricing in a 94.1% probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at its March meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The probability of a 0.25 percentage point cut stands at just 5.9%.
This represents a significant increase from the 78.3% chance of a hold seen before the release of January's employment data. The shift in expectations follows a stronger-than-expected jobs report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which showed non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000, well above the market forecast of 66,000. The unemployment rate came in at 4.3%, slightly below the expected 4.4%.
The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for March 17-18.Log in to leave comments!
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