BTC composite index mirrors start of past bear markets, analyst says

CryptoQuant contributor Woo Min-gyu has suggested that the current cryptocurrency market is likely entering a bear market rather than undergoing a mid-cycle correction. He explained that the Bitcoin Composite Market Index (BCMI) recently fell to the low 0.2s, a level similar to the beginning of the 2018 and 2022 bear markets. According to Woo, the BCMI had maintained a neutral balance at the 0.5 level until last October but then fell directly to the 0.2s without rebounding from the 0.3s, indicating a structural breakdown. The BCMI, a composite of MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), and investor sentiment, currently suggests shrinking unrealized profits, expanding realized losses, weakening sentiment, and ongoing valuation compression. However, Woo added that an extreme panic-selling phase has not yet occurred, as the market has not reached the 0.10–0.15 range where past cycle bottoms were formed. He projected that if the BCMI fails to recover to the 0.4–0.5 range, a structural bear market is likely to continue, and the final cycle bottom may still be ahead.