Arthur Hayes: Widening BTC-Nasdaq 100 decoupling could push BTC below $60K

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has diagnosed that Bitcoin could fall below $60,000 amid a widening decoupling from the Nasdaq 100 and shrinking global liquidity. In a blog post, Hayes noted that while Bitcoin has undergone a sharp correction since its all-time high, the Nasdaq 100 has remained relatively stable. He explained that some market participants see this as Bitcoin preemptively pricing in the risk of a dollar-based credit contraction, or credit deflation. If this credit deflation intensifies, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) could initiate large-scale liquidity injections, potentially mirroring the monetary easing policies seen after the 2008 global financial crisis. Hayes outlined two possible scenarios. In the first, Bitcoin's correction is already complete, and the Nasdaq will fall independently to restore balance. In the second, a sharp drop in the Nasdaq could pull Bitcoin below $60,000 before a rebound fueled by the Fed's liquidity measures. He advised market participants to adopt a cautious approach by reducing excessive leverage and building up cash reserves.