Analysis suggests US T-bill issuance drives BTC price

The issuance volume of U.S. short-term Treasury bills (T-bills) is the most influential liquidity metric for Bitcoin's price, according to a report from crypto market maker Keyrock, cited by Cointelegraph. The report found a high correlation of around 80% between T-bill issuance and the price of BTC since 2021. Changes in T-bill issuance have preceded BTC price movements by approximately eight months, and a 1% change in global liquidity levels was observed to correspond with a 7.6% fluctuation in BTC's price in the subsequent quarter. A significant portion of the current $38 trillion U.S. national debt is set to mature within the next four years. To repay debt originally borrowed at near-zero interest rates, the government must issue new debt at today's much higher rates, necessitating a larger volume of Treasury issuance to cover both principal and interest payments. The report estimates that annual Treasury issuance will remain between $600 billion and $800 billion through 2028. Consequently, Keyrock anticipates a positive impact on BTC's price between late this year and early 2027.