BTC price highly correlated with US T-bill issuance, analysis suggests

An analysis suggests that Bitcoin's price movements are more closely correlated with the issuance of short-term U.S. Treasury bills (T-bills) than with Federal Reserve policy or the M2 money supply. Nic Puckrin, founder of Coin Bureau, explained on X that there is a leading correlation coefficient of approximately 0.8 between T-bill issuance and BTC, with an eight-month lag affecting the price. He noted that the growth in T-bill issuance peaked in late 2024 and slowed through early 2026, a pattern that aligns with the recent weakness in BTC. Puckrin added that $3 trillion to $4 trillion in refinancing issuance is expected annually through 2029.