Kalshi users predict 66% chance of Trump tariff refunds by July

Following a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that President Donald Trump exceeded his authority by imposing reciprocal tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), users on the prediction market Kalshi are pricing in a 66% chance of tariff refunds occurring before July. This represents a significant increase from recent predictions in the low 30% range. Reuters has estimated that the U.S. government may need to refund as much as $135.5 billion in tariffs as a result of the ruling.