Binance: BTC's 'digital gold' narrative may grow if oil hits $130

Bitcoin could decouple from U.S. stocks and strengthen its role as 'digital gold' if international oil prices rise above $130 per barrel, according to an analysis by Binance Research. In a post on X, the firm noted that an oil price increase to the $115-$130 range could raise the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by 1.1% to 1.5%, potentially causing the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts until 2027. If oil prices were to surpass $180, the CPI could rise by more than 3%, triggering stagflation—a combination of economic recession and inflation. In this scenario, a sell-off in tech stocks would likely occur, allowing Bitcoin to decouple from the U.S. stock market and be re-evaluated as digital gold, the analysis suggested. Binance Research identified several key variables to watch going forward: - A decrease in ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and whether crude oil storage in the Gulf region reaches 85%. - The upcoming U.S. CPI data, scheduled for release on March 11, and subsequent guidance from the Fed. - Whether the 30-day correlation coefficient between BTC and the software sector ETF (IGV) falls below 0.5, along with fund flows into Bitcoin spot ETFs.