Polymarket shows 30% chance of 25 bp Fed rate cut this year

The crypto-based prediction market Polymarket is pricing in a 30% chance that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 bp this year, the highest probability among all options. The platform shows a 23% probability for both rates remaining unchanged and a 50 bp cut. A 75 bp cut is seen as having a 12% chance. The total contract volume for this prediction market is currently around $10 million.