Goldman Sachs raises US recession probability to 30%

Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months to 30%, an increase of five percentage points from its previous forecast. The bank cited soaring oil and natural gas prices as the reason for the revision. Goldman Sachs also expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September and December, and projects that U.S. GDP growth in the second half of the year will remain below trend, with an annual rate between 1.25% and 1.75%.