BTC could see short squeeze to $74K if Mideast tensions ease: Wintermute

Wintermute suggests that if Middle East tensions ease and oil prices fall, Bitcoin could see a short squeeze rally to between $70,000 and $74,000. The firm noted that the ratio of perpetual futures to spot trading volume has reached 15-to-one, while funding rate volatility is at a cycle low, indicating the market is coiling for a strong move in either direction. However, Wintermute also outlined bearish scenarios. If the conflict in the Middle East escalates and oil prices surpass $120, BTC could fall below the low $60,000s, with downside potential to the mid-$50,000s. Separately, the firm noted that 175 days have passed since Bitcoin's last peak, and if historical patterns repeat, the price could fall to the low-to-mid $50,000 range in the third quarter.