Analyst: BTC unlikely to hit $46.8K needed to match past bear market bottoms

The current phase for Bitcoin is expected to differ from past bear markets, crypto analyst Murphy (@Murphychen888) said on X. He noted that the average cost basis for Bitcoin addresses currently holding at a loss is just $93,600. While many holdings were bought at high prices, some addresses sold at a loss during two downturns late last year and early this year, which significantly lowered the average cost basis for all addresses with unrealized losses. To meet the bottoming conditions seen in the last three bear markets, BTC would need to fall to $46,800. However, Murphy stated his belief that this cycle will break from the historical pattern, adding that if such a drop does not occur, this would be recorded as the least painful bear market.