Insider trading suspected after $485K profit on US-Iran ceasefire bet

Three addresses on the prediction market Polymarket have netted a profit of $484,575 by betting on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire, fueling suspicions of insider trading, Cointelegraph reported. The addresses were reportedly created just before the ceasefire announcement, funded, and then used to bet on the outcome "U.S.-Iran ceasefire by April 7" with no prior activity. At the time of their bets, the probability of a ceasefire was considered low, ranging from 2.9% to 10.3%. The publication added that as the monthly trading volume in prediction markets surpasses $10 billion, regulatory scrutiny for insider trading and market manipulation is intensifying. Authorities in various countries are taking action against offenders, while major platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are implementing their own countermeasures.