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Fed's April rate hold probability steady at 98.4% post-CPI

April 10, 2026, 1:18 PM
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed holding interest rates steady in April is 98.4%, unchanged from before the Consumer Price Index (CPI) announcement. The probability of a 25 bp hike stands at 1.6%. On a cumulative basis through June, the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 96.8%, with a 1.5% chance of a 25 bp cut and a 1.7% chance of a 25 bp hike.

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