Raoul Pal: Future blockchain value will hinge on users and transaction value

Macro investor and Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal stated on X that two key metrics will determine the future valuation of blockchains: value transacted per user and the total number of users. He argued that Metcalfe's Law, which posits that a network's value is proportional to the square of its connected users, is the most suitable model for blockchain valuation. Pal explained that the value transacted per user will increase as the financial system migrates to blockchain technology, led by stablecoins and followed by asset tokenization. "As traditional finance holds assets that dwarf other sectors, the value flowing into blockchains will grow as tokenization progresses," he said. Pal added that the growth in total users will be driven by AI agents. Although their individual transaction sizes will be small, they will form a user base many times larger than that of humans. He concluded, "In 10 years, everything other than these two pillars will be a rounding error."