TD Cowen outlines 5 hurdles for Clarity Act, sees 30% chance of passage

U.S. investment bank TD Cowen has identified five additional obstacles to the passage of the Clarity Act, beyond the issue of stablecoin interest, The Block reported. Jaret Seiberg, a managing director at TD Cowen's Washington Research Group, cited the following challenges: - A staffing shortage at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Seiberg noted that with only Chairman Michael Selig currently serving, the confirmation process for additional commissioners would need to begin within four to six weeks to meet a late July deadline. - The potential inclusion of prediction market regulations, which could lead to Democratic opposition due to concerns over insider trading and conflicts of interest involving the Trump family. - The WLFI project, also linked to the Trump family, faces controversies such as restrictions on token sales for early investors, making it difficult for Democrats to support the bill. - Reports that Iran may accept cryptocurrency for passage fees through the Strait of Hormuz, which could prompt demands for stronger anti-money laundering (AML) and Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) provisions. - The possibility that Senators Dick Durbin and Roger Marshall may attempt to attach the Credit Card Competition Act to the legislation. While Galaxy Digital estimates a 50% chance of the bill passing this year, TD Cowen maintains a more conservative forecast of 30%.