Study finds most Polymarket users lose money as automated bots dominate profits

The vast majority of users on the prediction market platform Polymarket are losing money, with profits being concentrated among a small number of automated trading bots, according to a Bloomberg analysis. The analysis, which reviewed approximately two million addresses active since early 2025, found that over 100,000 accounts recorded losses exceeding $1,000, while around 50,000 accounts registered profits of less than $1,000. Profits were primarily captured by the top 1% of automated bots, which excel at early market entry and price execution. In contrast, regular retail investors incurred a total loss of $131 million due to limitations in their entry timing. Joshua Della Vedova, a professor at the University of San Diego who analyzed the data with Bloomberg, explained that the bots' success is not due to superior predictive ability. Instead, he noted they profit from an execution advantage, which allows them to enter markets early and secure favorable prices. Vedova added that while retail investors were more often correct in predicting outcomes, they ultimately lost tens of millions of dollars by entering trades too late at disadvantageous prices.