Prediction markets shifting to platforms for small, frequent retail trades

Prediction markets are evolving from platforms for one-off event betting to hubs for small, frequent trades by individual users, Bitget and Polymarket said in a report. Polymarket's monthly trading volume surged from about $1.2 billion in 2025 to over $20 billion in early 2026, while its number of active wallets more than tripled in six months. Small-scale traders with under $10,000 account for 82% of all users. These users are trading on the real-time prices of a wide range of events, from cryptocurrency prices and economic indicators to sports and entertainment news. The total market size is projected to exceed $240 billion this year and is expected to grow into a $1 trillion industry in the long term.