Analyst: Spot installment buying a more suitable BTC strategy than shorting

An analyst suggests that while bearish sentiment and short positions are prevalent in the market, a strategy of buying spot Bitcoin in installments is more appropriate given the current risks. Crypto analyst Murphy (@Murphychen888) noted on X that the market has recovered over the past three months, rising from a state of extreme fear in February. From a macro perspective, Murphy sees few data points or signals that would trigger a strong risk warning. However, some micro-level risks are present. Specifically, the Binance perpetual futures CVD Bias, an indicator of buying and selling sentiment, has fallen sharply since April to below its 90-day median. The analyst explained that the decline in the CVD Bias while BTC climbed from $70,000 to $80,000 suggests that investors are less willing to chase the rally and are increasingly opening short positions. Murphy pointed out that historically, a weakening of this indicator has often preceded a price correction for Bitcoin. On the other hand, the Coinbase CVD Bias remains above its baseline, and there are no clear signs of outflows from spot ETFs. Therefore, entering a short position is a high-risk bet, and a strategy of buying spot BTC in installments is more suitable for mitigating risk, the analyst explained.