Analyst: BTC rally losing steam as short-term holders sell at break-even

Bitcoin's rally is losing momentum as short-term holders (STH) sell their holdings at their break-even price, according to an analysis. On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted in a blog post that BTC has failed three attempts to retest its 200-day moving average, currently around $82,100. He observed a recurring pattern of STH selling near their cost basis. Adler explained that the price is currently trapped in a narrow range, with support at the one-week to one-month STH realized price of $77,900 and resistance at the 200-day MA, adding that breakout attempts have lacked sufficient trading volume. For a trend reversal, he said two conditions must be met: a breakout above the 200-day MA on the daily chart and the seven-day moving average of the STH Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) consistently remaining above one. Adler added that repeated breakout failures could lead to a pullback to $77,900, followed by a test of lower support levels.