Analysts divided on risk of BTC May plunge in midterm election year

Concerns are re-emerging that Bitcoin could repeat a historical pattern of sharp declines in May during U.S. midterm election years, though analysts are divided on the risk. According to Cointelegraph, crypto analyst Merlijn Enkelaar noted that BTC fell significantly in May of both 2018 and 2022, which were midterm election years. He suggested a similar trend could unfold this year, potentially pushing BTC down to $33,000. However, CoinEx Senior Analyst Jeff Ko countered that past plunges were driven by specific negative events—such as the Mt. Gox collapse, China's ICO regulations, Federal Reserve tightening, and the failures of Terra and FTX—rather than simple seasonality. Ko argued that the market structure has changed significantly due to the introduction of spot ETFs, corporate Bitcoin acquisitions, and progress on the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Congress. He believes the probability of a 70-80% crash, similar to past cycles, is low this time.