BTC rejection at 200-day MA mirrors 2022 bear market entry, says analyst

Bitcoin's failure to break its 200-day moving average at $82,400 and its subsequent drop to $76,000 are similar to the initial phase of the bear market in March 2022, according to an analysis by CryptoQuant. Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, explained that BTC faced the same technical resistance this time after rallying approximately 37% from its low, just as it has in the past. He noted that the 200-day moving average has historically served as a boundary between a relief rally and a resumption of a downtrend, suggesting the failure to break this resistance indicates the bear market is structurally ongoing. Moreno added that futures market demand, which drove the rally in April and May, has slowed amid liquidations of long positions after the price surpassed $82,000. Spot demand is also decreasing rapidly, with spot ETFs turning to net outflows and the Coinbase Premium becoming negative. He stated that a positive Coinbase Premium is typical in a sustained bull market, making the current situation a negative price indicator. Moreno concluded that such periods have typically been followed by further price declines or sideways movement, with support expected at the $70,000 level—the average cost basis for short-term investors—if the correction continues.