Analyst: Bitcoin has an 80% chance of having bottomed at $60K

Checkmate, a former lead analyst at Glassnode, has assessed that Bitcoin's recent retreat to $60,000 was the market's true capitulation phase, estimating an 80% probability that a bottom has been formed. He analyzed that while the market has entered a bull run, it now requires a prolonged period of sideways consolidation to rebuild confidence, similar to the patterns seen in 2016 and 2023. As evidence, he cited the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping to a historic low of 26 and the market's entry into a "Q10 event," which signifies the top 10% oversold territory. On-chain data shows the average cost basis for active investors is around $78,000, with key resistance levels at $78,000, $85,000, and $95,000. He noted that ETFs and MicroStrategy are currently absorbing selling pressure and projected that a breakthrough above $100,000 would trigger the start of significant capital inflows from large institutions.