Analysis: Bitcoin must hold +0.5 momentum to avert major decline

An analysis suggests that Bitcoin's ability to defend the +0.5 level on its price momentum indicator is a critical warning sign for a potential major downtrend. A drop below this threshold is seen not as a sign of immediate collapse, but as a first signal that upward momentum is weakening and selling pressure is taking over. The indicator has proven reliable historically. During a correction in mid-2025, for instance, cooling momentum was offset by strong whale accumulation, measured by spot CVD, resulting in range-bound trading. However, the last two times the indicator broke below +0.5, it led to a market collapse in October 2025 and a panic sell-off in February 2026. Currently, the momentum indicator remains above +0.5, but spot CVD is weakening. The Bitcoin Vector account noted that if momentum also gives way while spot buying is weak, it would be a powerful signal that a full-blown downtrend has begun, warranting increased caution. Bitcoin's price momentum, scored from -1 to 1, was at 0.9 until mid-May and is now around 0.7.