Analyst: BTC nearing bottom, but US Treasurys pose key risk

Bitcoin is approaching a bottom from a long-term perspective, but maturing U.S. Treasury bonds could act as a significant variable, according to Real Vision crypto market analyst Jamie Coutts. He noted on X that based on past bear market structures, the bottom is likely to occur in the second or third quarter of this year, and BTC has already entered a long-term accumulation phase. However, Coutts identified a major risk factor: $3.67 trillion in U.S. debt is set to mature in 2027. He explained that debt issued at near-zero interest rates during the COVID-19 pandemic will need to be refinanced next year at rates of 4-5%, a volume that current liquidity levels cannot absorb. This would only be possible if the Fed injects more liquidity. While Bitcoin would be the first to detect such a signal, Coutts cautioned that a distress signal from the Treasury market would have to appear before any policy shift occurs.