Analyst: BTC decline could precede US stock market drop

Bitcoin's decline could be a leading signal for the U.S. stock market, according to a post on X by Mike McGlone, a senior commodity analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. He noted that the S&P 500 has been strong, with only two down years since Bitcoin's launch in 2009, while the BTC-to-gold ratio and the U.S. stock market-to-GDP ratio have been falling. "As of June 10, the stock market cap-to-GDP ratio is about 2.5 times, its most extreme level in 100 years. Even a slight decline could have significant repercussions," McGlone said. He suggested that the so-called "crocodile-jaws" pattern—where stock prices rise while the BTC-to-gold ratio collapses—may be unsustainable. "The best-case scenario is that the crypto market recovers, following the stock market, which is hitting new all-time highs," he added. "On the other hand, there's a possibility that BTC could be pushed aside by other cryptocurrencies. With its mean-reverting tendency, BTC may be pricing in a potential normalization for the stock market."