BTC meets conditions for a bottom but lacks rebound signals: Glassnode

Bitcoin is in an undervalued range, and a significant price recovery could occur once long-term holders (LTHs) reduce their loss-selling, according to an analysis by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. The firm's report stated that for the past five months, the price of BTC has remained below both its True Market Mean (TMM)—the average price of actively traded BTC—and the cost basis for short-term holders. During this time, loss-selling by LTHs accounted for up to 43% of all realized profit and loss, with daily losses reaching $280 million, the highest level since December 2022. While ETF fund flows have somewhat calmed, they continue to see net outflows. Daily trading volume is also lingering between $650 million and $950 million, down approximately 80% from its peak last October, indicating that institutional demand has not yet clearly stabilized. In the derivatives market, investors are beginning to cautiously bet on an upside. The put/call ratio has fallen to its lowest point this year, yet the broader options market remains wary of downside risk. The spot price is also trading well below the "Max Pain" level, the price at which option buyers would incur the greatest losses. Glassnode concluded that from three perspectives, the market is showing consistent signs of being in the latter stages of a bear market. The firm emphasized that while the market has the necessary conditions to form a bottom, confirming signals have not yet appeared. A reversal in sentiment would require a further easing of selling pressure from LTHs, stabilization in institutional fund flows, and ideally, a sustained rise in the BTC price above the TMM.