BTC forecast of $300K-$500K by 2029 at odds with past cycle data

While some market experts forecast that BTC will rise to between $300,000 and $500,000 by 2029, this outlook is unrealistic when considering past halving cycle data, according to an analysis by CoinDesk. The outlet noted that although BTC has reached new all-time highs after each halving, the magnitude of the gains has progressively slowed, falling from 75x after 2013 to 3.5x and most recently 1.8x. The analysis suggests that while the upward trend may continue in the next cycle, the potential for a massive rally is limited. Factors contributing to this include the asset's expanding size, increased institutional investor inflow, and the growth of derivatives markets like ETFs and options, all of which are expected to reduce volatility.