BTC implied volatility falls below 40%, signaling a sharp move may be near

Bitcoin implied volatility has fallen below 40%, suggesting a large price swing could emerge soon, crypto analyst Murphy said on X. Murphy said BTC implied volatility over the past week and month stood at 33% and 34%, respectively, and warned that if low volatility persists, the impact of an unexpected event could be amplified and push prices further in one direction. Murphy said that when BTC implied volatility fell below 40% in January, Bitcoin dropped from $97,000 to $62,000 in 15 days. In a similar phase in late April, BTC fell from $82,000 to $60,000 in 14 days, Murphy added. Murphy also noted that after June 15, BTC declined from $66,000 to $58,000. At the same time, Murphy said lower implied volatility does not always signal a market decline, but past periods of low implied volatility were followed by large moves, warranting caution for futures traders.