Bitcoin profitability improves, but rebound signal remains insufficient: Cointelegraph
July 24, 2026, 10:16 AM
Bitcoin’s key on-chain indicators are improving, but the latest setup could still end in another failed rebound signal, Cointelegraph said.
The outlet said the share of BTC supply in profit rose above 50% in July, up from this year’s low of 46.2% on June 30. With around 60% of the total BTC supply now back in profit, the spent output profit ratio, or SOPR, for long-term holders is also improving. A long-term holder SOPR above one indicates profit-taking is dominant, while a reading below one suggests selling at a loss.
Cointelegraph said the 30-day simple moving average of long-term holder SOPR would need to stay above one for several weeks, and overall supply in profit would need to exceed 64%, for the bear market to end. It added there was already one failed case in this cycle: from April 28 to June 1, the average long-term holder SOPR stayed above one for 35 days and supply in profit climbed as high as 67%, but both indicators later turned lower again. So far, the 30-day simple moving average of long-term holder SOPR has remained below one for more than 50 days.
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