BTC seen trading between $58K and $67K in August

Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. outlined three possible paths for Bitcoin in August, with a base-case 55% probability that BTC will trade sideways in the $58,000-$67,000 range. - Base case: 55% probability, rangebound between $58,000 and $67,000 - Bearish case: 30% probability, with a break below $57,730 opening the way for a test of $52,750 - Bullish case: 15% probability, with a break above $67,000 opening the way for a test of $71,000-$74,000 - Since 2013, Bitcoin has closed higher in August only four times out of 13, with an average return of +1.12% and a median return of -7.49% - Applying the median decline of -7.49% leaves room for a retest near $58,300 - Historically, Bitcoin fell in every August during U.S. midterm election years in 2014, 2018 and 2022, with an average decline of -13.6% - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains elevated at around 4.70%, weighing on Bitcoin - Open interest has stabilized, while funding rates are not overheated, suggesting the risk of a large-scale long squeeze remains low