Analysis: Weak U.S. jobs data may limit BTC upside

U.S. payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, driving the probability of a September Fed rate hike down to 40% from 70%, but weakening labor conditions could cap Bitcoin’s gains, according to an analysis by on-chain analytics firm Hupzy, formerly Spot On Chain. Citing data from The Kobeissi Letter, Hupzy said July payrolls missed market expectations for an 85,000 increase by 108,000 and marked the third-largest monthly employment decline since the 2020 COVID shock. June figures were also revised down by 37,000 from the previous reading. Hupzy added that while lower odds of a rate hike are positive for risk assets, the economic slowdown behind the shift is also a risk-off factor, and the market now needs to watch whether the decline in employment continues next month.