Bitcoin miners not yet capitulating despite near-50% BTC price drop

Axel Adler Jr. said Bitcoin’s price and mining profitability have deteriorated sharply, but the relatively limited drop in hash rate suggests the mining industry has not yet entered a full capitulation phase. Adler said BTC fell 49% to $63,400 from a peak of $124,700 in October last year, while the seven-day moving average hash rate declined 23% to 886 EH/s from a peak of 1,150 EH/s over the same period. The 30-day moving average share of transaction fees in mining revenue also dropped to 0.71%, a level last seen in December 2015, underscoring pressure on miners’ profitability. Even so, Adler said the hash rate has been declining gradually around 900 EH/s, indicating the sector is still adapting to weaker profitability rather than undergoing a sharp shutdown. He added the industry could be seen as emerging from the current profitability squeeze only if the share of fee revenue remains above 1% and the hash rate starts rising again.